'Aggressive' and 'breaking its promises': portrayal of NATO activities in the Baltics

Despite the focus of the media mostly falling on the COVID-19 pandemic, NATO remains one of the main topics discussed by Kremlin-related media. Harmful narratives are being pushed to create a sense that NATO is using its smaller members as cannon fodder, the Alliance making up the ‘Russian threat’, and violating its promises not to expand in post-Soviet countries. According to the analysis carried out by Debunk EU, in December, narratives focusing on military agenda of NATO outweighed the communication associated with political issues of the Alliance. Additionally, Baltic countries were often accused of their ‘inadequate NATO defence spending’ more than any other member state.

In December 2020, Debunk EU detected 4615 articles related to NATO, which were posted by hostile media sources. Within the period, Debunk EU analysts reviewed 3136 articles with potentially harmful content, identifying 938 articles with false and misleading content from 97 media outlets. The articles had a potential reach of 989 million contacts.

The main distributors of NATO-related disinformation and misinformation in the Baltic countries in Russian and English languages were Kremlin-aligned media sources rambler.ru, ria.ru, tsargrad.tv and gazeta.ru. As far as the local language media outlets are concerned, Kremlin-funded sputniknewslv.com and sputniknews.lt stood out as the most false and misleading content publishing media sources in Latvian and Lithuanian languages, respectively.

Share of NATO-focused content in December 2020, @DebunkEU data

Problematic information with false and misleading content comprised a third of the general coverage about NATO. Out of all the content pieces analysed, disinformation was identified in 924 articles (29.46%), while misinformation comprised only 14 publications (0.45%). Moreover, almost all the articles that mentioned NATO in December were identified as negative (99.6%).

Throughout the monitored period, stories related to the NATO military and political agenda have received high trace in the Baltic information space, despite the media focus being mainly drawn to the COVID-19 pandemic. Disinformation flow targeting NATO in the Baltic countries sought high fluctuation, with up to five waves of increased number of articles published per month. High intensity of false and misleading content disseminated against the Alliance was mostly generated in relation to the external events that took ground in the Russian Federation and Belarus.

On average, approx. 30.3 false and misleading content pieces were identified per day. The highest rise of problematic information was observed on December 16th - December 18th, following the annual press conference of the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. Within these days, increase in false and misleading content exceeded the average of the month almost twice, constituting +89% and +94% increase in disinformation articles published, respectively.

NATO-focused disinformation dynamics by language, @DebunkEU data

Throughout December, narratives focusing on the military agenda of NATO outweighed the communication which was associated with political issues of the Alliance. Within the analysed period, narrative NATO is a threat was the most mentioned narrative in false and misleading coverage, making up to three times more than the narrative placing second in the general distribution, and reaching at least 958 million potential contacts.

Share of NATO-focused disinformation by narrative, @DebunkEU data

Dominant role of the narrative NATO is a threat was also witnessed in the dynamics of its application, resulting in the communication of the supposed ‘aggressiveness’ and ‘offensiveness’ of the Alliance being pushed persistently throughout the whole month.

Moreover, compared with the general dynamics of information flow, there seems to be a correlation between the complexity of narratives used with the statements made by political figures of the Russian Federation and Belarus, resulting in official representatives of the country sustaining the role of initiators of false and misleading content on NATO, with the strategic application of digital media sources to further amplify hostile messages.

NATO-focused narrative dynamics, December 2020, @DebunkEU data

Cross-analysis of member country mention and application of disinformation narratives targeting NATO, shows strong tendency of narratives being applied both universally, addressed to all member states of the Alliance, and regionally, i.e., adjusted to country specific context.

In terms of universal application, NATO is a threat and NATO is untrustworthy stood out as the narratives that contributed to the highest number of countries mentioned per false and misleading content piece.

Baltic countries were addressed with the narrative ‘Inadequate NATO defence spending’ more often than any other member states, with the primary focus paid on the questioning of NATO military capabilities strengthening in the region. Narrative ‘Cracking unity of NATO states’ was used exceptionally with mentions of Turkey and the countries relations with the U.S.

Mentions by narrative & state, December 2020, @DebunkEU data

The most popular sub-narrative in December was ‘NATO is aggressive and provocative’ under the narrative ‘NATO is a threat’. The following sub-narrative was applied up to three times more often than any other sub-narrative and constituted 602 mentions in total.

The following paragraphs include examples of hostile messages about NATO with explanations provided by Debunk EU.

NATO is preparing to invade Belarus

On December 2nd, during online session of CSTO Collective Security Council, leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko speaking about aggravating situation in the country pointed out to external factors, contributing to protests in Belarus. In his speech A. Lukashenko claimed that “NATO is creating special military unit to seize Western parts of Belarus” and accused Poland of having territorial claims to the country.” (ria.ru, 02/12/2020)

Those statements of A. Lukashenko match the definition of ‘hyperbolization’ - seeking to falsely exaggerate and inflate regular military activity of NATO eFP and U.S. rotational forces in Lithuania and Poland, stationed for defensive and deterrence purposes. The statement about the “NATO special military unit” is unsubstantiated, because there is no evidence to support such thesis, as well as “Poland’s aspirations for Grodno region”, which were multiple times rejected by senior Polish officials.

NATO is training to seize Kaliningrad oblast and Crimea

“<…> Crimea is of the most important geopolitical significance, so the likelihood of an attempt to seize it by Ukraine and NATO is quite high<…> Similar threats are taking place against the Kaliningrad region<…> NATO also has plans to seize this territory.” (nation-news.ru, 21/12/2020)

False and misleading implication is made here to suggest that NATO has offensive intentions to seize Kaliningrad region and Crimea, the latter being presented as Russian territory. ‘Association’ rhetorical technique is used to legitimize these statements by referring to the authority of a ‘military expert’ Alexander Perendzhiev, who previously served in the Russian armed forces and was fired from the position in 2009. Apart from the reference to expert’s opinion, no substantial evidence is given to back these comments on supposedly offensive behaviour of the Alliance.

NATO violated the promise given to USSR president M. Gorbachev in 1990

On December 17th, annual press conference of the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin was held in Moscow. In a five-hours online session V. Putin claimed that Russia is “white and fluffy” and accused the West of sharing blame for deteriorating relations with Russia. V. Putin stated: “We heard your assurances that NATO won’t expand to the East, but you didn’t keep your promises. Just who is white and fluffy and who is spiky and aggressive?“ (ntv.ru, 17/12/2020)

Statements about the West breaking the alleged promise not to enlarge NATO forces beyond the borders of a reunit